For the past eight years, Donald Trump and Joe Biden have been bitter opponents, disagreeing on many issues and insulting each other. But outgoing US President Biden and his successor are working together on one thing: both men and their closest advisors are urging Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas to reach an agreement. The deal should be in place by January 20, 2025, when Trump moves into the White House.
The framework for a ceasefire lasting several weeks has been clear for months. Hamas is to allow the return of hostages it has held captive for more than 400 days in tunnels deep underground in the Gaza Strip, in exchange for Palestinians being released from Israeli custody. Then more food, water and medicine could finally be brought to the coastal area, where almost two million Palestinians have been living under inhumane conditions for more than a year. The Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health said on Friday that 45,200 people had died and more than 107,000 were injured.
In the past few days, the hope of relatives to see their friends and relatives again grew again. The Islamist Hamas murdered almost 1,100 Israelis and 71 foreigners and kidnapped 250 hostages during its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Of these, around 100 are still considered missing, and not all of them are still alive. In addition to the USA, Qatar and Egypt are also leading the indirect negotiations between Hamas and Israel. Delegations from Israel came to Doha, as did CIA chief William Burns, a close confidante of Biden. However, the fact that Burns left again on Thursday suggests that an agreement is still a few days away.
Hamas is also spreading positive assessments in the Arab media: the talks were “excellent,” and an agreement is “near” and possible if Israel does not make further demands. And this seems to be possible given the experiences of the past 14 months. Because a major obstacle to an agreement still exists: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu governs with two right-wing extremist parties that want to leave the coalition in the event of an agreement with Hamas. And it's not just many of the hostages' relatives and friends who assume that Netanyahu's political survival is at least as important as the hostages' health.
In several interviews, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed hope that Hamas would be ready for a deal. Not only is the terrorist organization weakened militarily and its leadership almost completely decimated: there will hardly be any support from the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon or from its main financier Iran. At the same time, Blinken recalled that the negotiators had often come to a similar extent – only to fail. It's like the legendary scene from the animated series “Peanuts,” says Blinken: “Lucy puts the football on the ground, Charlie Brown takes a run, and at the last moment Lucy pulls the ball away again.”
Because it was often Netanyahu who blocked a deal, all eyes are on Israel's prime minister. According to research by the daily newspaper Haaretz The mediators see this as the biggest obstacle in the transition from the first to the second phase. A ceasefire of 42 or 60 days is being discussed, during which 34 hostages will be released: “women, children, old people and soldiers.” Israel's military would withdraw from parts of the Gaza Strip and release captured Palestinians. It is still unclear how many there will be and who will monitor the border crossings from Egypt to the Gaza Strip for the delivery of aid supplies.
In Washington, Cairo and Doha it is hoped that after several weeks of ceasefire, the pressure from Israel and abroad is too high for Netanyahu to continue the Gaza war. In the second phase, which is supposed to lead to a permanent ceasefire, Netanyahu also faces a delicate question: Hamas will demand high-ranking prisoners in order to exchange soldiers and men under 50. There is talk that some are going into exile in Qatar or Turkey. At the same time, observers doubt that the Hamas leadership will stick with it until the end: It could be life insurance for them to continue to have Israeli hostages in their power.
Either way, another central question remains: Who should take control of the Gaza Strip in the future? Because Israel rejects not only Hamas for this role, but also the Palestinian Authority under the leadership of the aged President Mahmoud Abbas. But one thing is clear: Donald Trump's government will have to take care of this problem.
