The best way to see how high the chances of forming a government are in Thuringia is perhaps on the talk shows. ARD, Tuesday evening with Sandra Maischberger for example: Sahra Wagenknecht is a guest. Mockers say that their appearances are now almost as safe as the broadcast of the Tagesschau at 8 p.m. Wagenknecht is asked about the war in Ukraine and repeats her positions on the stationing of American missiles in Germany, which she finds irresponsible, and on the West's relationship with Russia, where she calls for more diplomacy. At some point it will also be about the coalition agreement in Thuringia, which the party leaders of the CDU, SPD and Wagenknecht's regional association have been negotiating for weeks. With her uncompromising foreign policy course, Wagenknecht would have won a treaty that would probably not exist with her own people in Erfurt.
At Maischberger, the 55-year-old now says that, based on everything she knows, her party's coalition agreement with the CDU and SPD looks significantly different than the exploratory paper she heavily criticized: “And we are very happy about that.” Of course there is pressure for that and have to give criticism. However, this helped to achieve “significant improvements”. Wagenknecht does not say what these improvements consist of. But the fact that she publicly raises her thumb at all means two things: The founder of the BSW seems to be relying on diplomacy in the conflict with the subordinate troops in the country before the new federal election. And: Thuringia could actually get a new government before Christmas. Could be, because there are still enough cliffs now.
The public will find out on Friday what exactly the CDU, SPD and BSW negotiators have agreed on. At that point at the latest, the distribution of departments, which was deliberately placed at the end of the negotiations, should also be discussed. If only to avoid giving the impression that it was about posting first and then about content. After long exploratory discussions and negotiations in thematic working groups, the party leaders Mario Voigt (CDU), Georg Maier (SPD) as well as Katja Wolf and Steffen Schütz (BSW) and their confidants retreated to a hotel in the Ilm district on Monday and Tuesday for a retreat final controversial points resolved.
The hurdles are still more visible than the content
There was talk of agreement on concrete measures in the areas of education, health, the economy and migration. Some points from the working groups had already become known: mandatory German tests before starting school in order to give all children equal starting opportunities, more teachers, more police officers, free master training, reduction in bureaucracy, faster asylum procedures, more consistent deportations and longer deadlines for debt repayment.
The hurdles to its creation currently appear clearer than the contents of the blackberry coalition. For the CDU, which wants to appoint Voigt as Prime Minister, a small party conference is to decide on the coalition agreement. In addition to the board, the district chairmen and local politicians also take part in the meeting. Although there were reservations among their ranks about an alliance with the BSW, serious resistance to the agreement is not to be expected.
In recent weeks, however, the mood has been more critical among the SPD, which achieved its historically worst result in Thuringia in the state elections with 6.1 percent. The Jusos then decided: “Our role is not in a government of small and big evils in which we cannot meet our goals.” State leader Maier, on the other hand, persistently campaigned for a role in shaping the government. How much weight his words carry remains to be seen. At the party conference last weekend, he only received 62 percent approval for his re-election. The members should now vote on the coalition agreement; they have two weeks to do so. Their vote will be announced on December 9th.
Membership puzzle at BSW
The voice of the members is also crucial at the BSW, and there will be a party conference for this on December 7th. It was originally scheduled for this Saturday, but due to the early elections in the federal government it was postponed for two weeks, because the members are supposed to draw up the state list for the federal election at the same time. How many members there will be is currently one of the most interesting questions. The admission of new members at the BSW is strictly regulated centrally; the federal executive board in Berlin alone decides. This means that the BSW leadership in Erfurt cannot say exactly whether its own regional association has more or fewer than 100 members – and it fuels fears that Berlin is specifically taking in people who might be less willing to compromise than the leadership duo Wolf/ Sagittarius. Recently, Wolf was irritated by the fact that the federal executive board accepted members that the regional association had not even suggested. And how they will vote on December 9th, nobody knows.
Even if all three parties say yes to the coalition agreement, another problem remains. The CDU, BSW and SPD factions together only have half of the 88 mandates in the state parliament. For majorities they will therefore have to rely on votes from the opposition. The AfD has been the strongest faction since the state elections; it has 32 seats and can therefore block all decisions that require a two-thirds majority. These are constitutional changes, the election of constitutional judges or the dissolution of parliament. Since all three coalition partners refuse to work with the right-wing extremist AfD, only the Left Party remains for democratic majorities.
However, an incompatibility decision ties the CDU's hands for firm cooperation with the Left. There will therefore be no fairness agreement, as the acting Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow had called for to support the blackberry coalition. Immediately after the state elections, Ramelow also brought up the possibility of personally helping the coalition gain a majority. “There is a voice sitting in front of you,” Ramelow told the SZ at the time. The Left later made it clear that support for the Voigt government was not easily available. Ramelow himself is now pursuing other plans: He is applying for a direct mandate for the Bundestag on February 23rd.
