In 2014, Scots voted on independence. They narrowly decided against it. Ten years later, the issue has faded into the background. But it hasn't disappeared.
According to a political expert, the desire for independence in Scotland remains unbroken ten years after the referendum on secession from the United Kingdom. In surveys, almost half of Scots are still in favor of it, says Kirsty Hughes from the think tank Scottish Center on European Relations in an interview with the German Press Agency. In younger age groups there is even a clear majority.
Ten years ago – on September 18, 2014 – the Scots voted against secession in a referendum by 55 percent to 45 percent. Since then, the proportion of independence supporters has increased slightly, and at times there was even a narrow majority in the surveys.
This fact is not affected by falling support for the Scottish independence party SNP, which suffered a bitter defeat in the recent British parliamentary elections.
Expert Hughes therefore believes that the matter is far from being put to rest, even if the Labor government – like its conservative predecessor – sees the issue as being ticked off and the public debate is currently focused on other issues such as the ailing health system and the economic situation is changing.
“I think the only way to have another referendum is for the numbers to go up and for it to become a real democratic issue,” Hughes said.
If the proportion of supporters in surveys increases to 60 percent or more, the issue would become difficult to ignore. “And I wouldn’t rule out that happening in the next ten years,” she adds.
Hughes believes that the independence movement could be given a new boost if the question of secession from Great Britain were to gain momentum in Northern Ireland.
Scottish Prime Minister John Swinney was confident that the separation could still be achieved. “I think we are closer to achieving that than we were in 2014,” said the SNP politician in a speech on the anniversary of the referendum. The aim now is to convince even more Scots that their priorities could be better addressed outside the UK.
Ten weeks after taking office, the social democratic Labor Party had already proven that Scotland's problems could not be solved by a change of government in London, as Labor claimed, Swinney continued.
According to a ruling by the Supreme Court in London, the British central government would have to agree to a new referendum. However, she emphasizes that the 2014 referendum was a one-off affair. Those in favor of disengagement, however, claim that Brexit has changed the initial situation. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, a clear majority of Scots strictly rejected Britain's exit from the EU.