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Wednesday, November 13, 2024
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    HomeWorldKamala Harris is catching up in Donald Trump's core territory

    Kamala Harris is catching up in Donald Trump's core territory

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    The US election campaign is in the hot phase: According to a current survey, Vice President Kamala Harris can make up important ground.

    The election campaign in the USA is in full swing: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are trying to convince previously undecided voters with on-site appointments. A current survey assumes that Harris has gained significantly in popularity in recent weeks.

    The results of the survey by the polling institute Selzer & Co. for the daily newspaper “Des Moines Register” put Harris at 43 percent in the state of Iowa, only four percentage points behind competitor Trump. However, the survey was conducted last week, before the second attack on Trump. For comparison: In the last Selzer poll, which questioned President Joe Biden, who has now left the race, Biden was a full 18 percentage points behind Trump.

    The state is unlikely to be decisive in the election, but the significant increase in support for Harris is already being interpreted by some experts as an indicator of a close race.

    The Selzer survey is considered particularly accurate and therefore particularly meaningful. In the race between Trump and Biden four years ago, several polling institutes saw the states of Iowa and Wisconsin in a significantly better situation. Selzer's results, on the other hand, saw Biden seven percentage points behind Trump in Iowa. Ultimately, Trump won the state by eight percentage points and also achieved a significantly better result in Wisconsin than most predicted.

    A similar scenario played out in 2016. In the last Selzer poll, Trump was ahead by 7 points in Iowa. He won the state (by nine percentage points) and the election against Hillary Clinton, doing better than most polls had predicted for the swing state.

    In addition, Harris is currently doing well in one of the hotly contested swing states, Wisconsin. According to a survey by Marquette University Law School, she currently leads with 52 percent. Trump gets 48 percent. However, this is at best a reason for the Democrats to be briefly happy, because experience has shown that a gap of four points can be quickly closed and in the other six swing states the results of the two candidates are even closer together. Swing states are states with a particularly large number of undecided voters and therefore have the opportunity to have a decisive influence on the outcome of an election.

    This year, the survey results from the major opinion research institutes do not differ that much, writes CNN in an analysis, but this above all suggests that Trump is not being underestimated.

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