Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is coming to a head

Middle East

Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is coming to a head

There have been fighting between the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Israel's military for almost a year. Developments are currently heading towards further escalation – with uncertain consequences.

After almost a year of constant fighting, there are again increasing signs that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon could escalate into open war. The return of refugee Israeli citizens to their homes in the north of the country is now one of Israel's declared war goals – alongside the liberation of the hostages from the Gaza Strip and the destruction of Hamas.

The only way to get there is “a military operation,” Israel's Defense Minister Joav Galant said on Monday at a meeting with US mediator Amos Hochstein, according to his office. The possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah is becoming increasingly remote because the militia has tied its fate to Hamas in the Gaza Strip and refuses to end the conflict.

UN Palestinian Relief Agency (UNRWA) Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini said the situation was “very worrying” after a meeting in Lebanon with Foreign Minister Bou Habib. He hopes for the best, but you have to prepare for the worst.

Since the war in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the Islamist Hamas began almost a year ago, there have been almost daily military confrontations between the Israeli army and Hezbollah in the border area between Israel and its northern neighbor Lebanon.

Since then, a total of around 60,000 Israelis have had to leave their houses and apartments in many villages and the town of Kiriat Shmona in northern Israel. Many of those affected have been living in hotels in the country paid for by the state for months. Dozens of houses and infrastructure were damaged in several towns in the Israeli border area. The military has always had a presence in the area. Since the beginning of the fighting with Hezbollah, there have also been army checkpoints on roads used by civilians.

There were deaths on both sides – most of them were members of Hezbollah. Only on Tuesday, according to Israeli reports, three Hezbollah fighters were killed in an attack on a location in southern Lebanon.

The pro-Iranian Shiite militia says it is acting in solidarity with the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It only wants to stop its attacks when the “aggressions against Gaza and the Palestinian people” stop. Under Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, it has steadily expanded its influence in the past with support from Tehran. This extends deep into the crisis-paralyzed Lebanese state. The organization primarily controls the south on the border with Israel, Shiite-inhabited districts of the capital Beirut and the Bekaa Valley in the north of the country.

Hezbollah is prepared for “any scenario,” according to informed sources. Sources from the organization told the German Press Agency: “Our fighters have been ready since October 8th. Our leaders have emphasized on all occasions that we will protect Lebanon.”

Observers assume that there could be further and possibly larger military clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in the near future. However, the possible extent of the confrontation is unclear, said Riad Kahwaji, director of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), to dpa. There were also differences of opinion within the Israeli government. According to political analyst Makram Rabah, an Israeli deployment of ground troops in Lebanon is likely. “But it's a question of timing,” he said.

The Lebanese parliament speaker and close ally of Hezbollah, Nabih Berri, does not expect a large-scale, but rather a limited deployment of Israeli ground troops in Lebanon. He told the newspaper “Al-Joumhouria” that he assumed that Israel would significantly expand its military actions, “but without an attempt at invasion.”

The Israeli newspaper “Jerusalem Post”, citing political and military circles, reported that Israel was closer than ever to an all-out war with Hezbollah. The reason for this is also the “strategic victory” over Hezbollah at the end of August. At that time, Israel's army learned of an impending militia attack and then attacked targets in southern Lebanon. According to Israeli reports, the military destroyed thousands of rockets that were aimed at northern Israel.